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The polyester market continues to be cold this year, and the future industry chain giants will have "big moves"
Release Date:
2019/11/06
New Fengming PTA put into production, Hengyi Brunei PMB project three major devices to produce qualified products, chemical fiber leading projects have fallen, profit and loss can promote the polyester market reversal?
New Fengming PTA put into production, Hengyi Brunei PMB project three major devices to produce qualified products, chemical fiber leading projects have fallen, profit and loss can promote the polyester market reversal?
This year, the market of polyester market continued to be cold, and the market price of the whole year showed a trend of shock and weakening. In October, the market price of polyester repeatedly refreshed the new low of the year, and the profit of the industry was also in danger.
With the new Fengming put into production, Hengyi refining and chemical commercial operation "boots" finally landed, placed in the upstream raw materials at the end of the year polyester market will be how to present?
Chemical fiber leading project "boots" finally landed: new Fengming PTA put into production, Hengyi Brunei petrochemical project into commercial operation.
On October 30, Zhejiang Dushan Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Dushan Energy"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xinfengming Group, was officially put into operation with an annual output of 2.2 million tons of PTA. The unit consists of two production lines, each with a capacity of 1.1 million tons/year. Dushan Energy is the first upstream extension project in Xinfengming, with a total investment of 7 billion yuan. The device for this start-up is the first phase of its project. The second phase of the project started in September 2019 and is expected to start production in the third quarter of 2020, with a plant capacity of 2.2 million tons/year.
The project uses the latest PTA process technology and patented equipment of British BP company, which can reduce 95% solid waste, 65% greenhouse gas and 75% wastewater discharge compared with traditional PTA technology. Compared with the industry cost, it has the advantage of 200-300 yuan/ton.
According to reports, as of October 31, another leading private refining and chemical project has also made significant progress. The coal and diesel hydrofining unit, hydrocracking unit and flexible coking unit of Hengyi (Brunei) PMB petrochemical project undertaken by Sinochem Second Construction Company have been fully debugged, intermodal and operated smoothly, and have successively put into production qualified products such as aviation kerosene, ultra-low sulfur diesel oil, heavy naphtha, light naphtha, liquefied gas and flexible gas and refined gas, and contracted the whole plant follow-up maintenance and construction tasks.
At this point, the Brunei PMB petrochemical project officially entered the commercial operation stage.
After 2019, the polyester industry chain will face a new round of production capacity cycle, and the most concerned by the market is the new Fengming PTA device, Hengyi refining plant on the market impact expectations, with the upcoming fourth quarter, this impact becomes more and more obvious.
What impact will the recent 2.2 million-ton PTA and Hengyi Brunei petrochemical projects have on the volatile polyester market?
With the start-up of PTA's new and idle devices, the PTA capacity expansion cycle will gradually begin. In Q4-2020 2019, PTA will have a total of 18.8 million tons of new capacity production plans such as Hengli Petrochemical, Ningbo Yisheng, Xinfengming, Honggang Petrochemical and Fujian Baihong. The corresponding PTA market concentration will begin to decline, the control capacity of leading enterprises will also decline, and PTA processing fees will hardly expand at the extreme end of September 2018. PTA supply side pressure has led to the market has been sluggish. In anticipation of the commissioning of the new plant, the domestic PTA market price has fallen by 28.2 since July.
At the same time, including Hengyi, including private large-scale refining and chemical projects have been put into operation, will inevitably make the import dependence of PX will also be greatly reduced, PTA production enterprises in the raw materials pricing voice will also increase.
For PTA, 2019 PTA is a year in which supply and demand are basically balanced. However, with the commissioning of 2.5 million tons of new Fengming and 2.5 million tons of new PTA plants in Hengli in the fourth quarter of 2019, PTA may enter a stage of substantial accumulation in the first half of next year. PTA processing costs are bound to drop. Moreover, Hengli still has 2.5 million tons of PTA plants to be put into production in the middle of next year, and 3 million tons of Ningbo CICC from July to August next year, by the end of next year, there will be more new PTA devices to be put into production. For the PTA industry, there will definitely be an oversupply situation. It can be predicted that the processing fee will be greatly reduced, the difficulty of inventory management will increase, and some PTA devices with smaller capacity and higher marginal cost may be eliminated.
All in all, the future of the entire polyester industry chain leader has a large number of new expansion plans, the market is currently the supply side of the main concern is that the new production capacity to lead to a reshuffle restart, the industry will return to the arms race, the tragic fight of the low profit stage.
At this stage of the market, the recent PTA market between upstream and downstream in a state of game. The centralized maintenance of multiple units has led to a lack of in stock supply, while some factories still have maintenance plans, so the destocking pattern may continue to be maintained. With the expected profit and loss of the new device, the PTA market is relatively stable in the short term from the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the external trade war is favorable, and the cost and maintenance device are supported. Although the downstream polyester load is still at a high level and the demand is stable, the terminal gray cloth inventory is still under pressure, and the PTA in stock circulation is relatively smooth, the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent. PTA price may continue to maintain a weak and shock pattern, but there is limited. Source: Sinochem Second Construction, Network
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