Polyester "put price" failure, the textile market into a dilemma!

June 29, polyester filament promotion continues!

Holiday price = production and sales are booming, but this time it has "failed!

Before the holiday, the polyester filament factory suffered another massive hemorrhage. Some leading factories directly lowered their quotations to 500 yuan, almost a 10% discount. Compared with the current cash flow, it should be regarded as a sale at a loss. But it is such a big promotion but did not return to sustained production and sales, the market returned to calm after a one-day tour!

On the first trading day after the festival, polyester transactions were also light, with some POY production and sales at 20%, 30% and 45%. Some FDY production and sales are 30%, 20% and 50%; Some DTY production and sales are 80%, 30% and 50%, in short: poor!

29, polyester filament promotion continued, the mainstream manufacturers offer 100-200 yuan/ton fell.

Judging from the price trend table in the past 10 days, across the Dragon Boat Festival holiday this week, bulk textile raw materials are "floating green!

For polyester manufacturers, it is already a recognized operation mode in the industry to allow profits to have a holiday before various holidays. Many weaving manufacturers will choose to make up more or less at this node. However, this Dragon Boat Festival holiday is unusually "calm". Xiaobian asked several weaving manufacturers and most of the answers were: don't stock up, enough!

Why does everyone feel this way? Because they don't dare! To borrow the words of a textile boss: there are no wet shoes that often stand by the river. this year, we have to cross the river!

Looking back on last year before the Chinese New Year, many textile bosses denounced "huge sums of money" hoarding a lot of raw materials to prepare for the next year's production, but an epidemic, so that the original should have appeared in February, "good start" yellow, March polyester fell, April polyester fell, May polyester rose and fell... A move out, originally thinking of making money textile bosses have lost a lot.

A raw material salesman said: "Now customers are numb to raw materials. Before the Chinese New Year, a customer ate 1000 tons of raw materials at an unimaginable very low price, thinking that the price would rise in the next year. As a result, the current price has long fallen below his low price at that time, and no one dares to take risks!" That mentality continues to this day.

Of course, in the first two months, the price of crude oil gradually rose from the bottom of US $10/barrel to US $40/barrel. Polyester filament yarn also released a clear bottom signal, triggering the purchasing desire of downstream weaving manufacturers one after another. Their raw material inventory also reached a new high this year, nearly one month or so. However, due to financial constraints, the raw material purchasing strategy of textile enterprises in June was more cautious, mainly consuming the previous inventory.

According to research, at present, most weaving manufacturers generally have a stock of raw materials for about half a month. In the last wave of market conditions, manufacturers with more stock gradually replenished the raw materials in their factories to late July or even the end of July. In other words, manufacturers who habitually hoard raw materials have sufficient raw materials on hand, while those manufacturers who originally purchased on demand and bought some for use are also considering the overall situation, no more money will be invested in raw materials.

"Expensive" flour and "cheap" bread, the market is in a dilemma!

In the face of polyester filament manufacturers ignore the downstream market, followed by crude oil from time to time to pull up, is the market really warming up? Xiaobian think, of course not!

Some people in the industry said that polyester filament manufacturers are just bluffing now, and the price reduction in the later period is still a high probability event.

For example, at present, many polyester filament manufacturers have once again entered the stage of tired inventory. Apart from the production and sales exceeding 100 on the 23rd, polyester filament manufacturers have not seen a large volume market for more than half a month, with most of them producing and selling at an average of 50% or less.

For example, at present, the polyester factory is still maintaining high-load operation. Recently, a 250000-ton polymerization spinning filament plant producing POY was heated up and restarted during the Dragon Boat Festival, and the polyester operation increased from 90.9 percent to 91.3 percent;

For example, the price of silk rose in the early stage, but the price of gray cloth was difficult to follow. In order to get rid of inventory, not to mention the price increase, some cloth owners could only rely on price wars to take goods;

For example, although there are signs of recovery in foreign trade, the contradiction between supply and demand is not decreasing. More and more weaving bosses are beginning to consider the second round of production reduction and holidays. Later, the weaving market will face a greater possibility of starting work.

So, no matter the raw material factory and weaving factory, the biggest challenge this year is how to regain demand. Throughout June, many textile people said that orders were flat. Although there were signs of recovery in domestic and foreign trade, hot products were missing. After all, under the condition that the terminal demand has not fully recovered, consumers can only consume rationally, and clothing is originally a non-necessary rigid demand. People will only consider clothing after filling their stomachs, which also makes it difficult to drive demand to pick up unless there are more powerful discount and promotion activities downstream.

Then the polyester and fabric in the middle link are in an awkward position. On the one hand, the price of raw materials forced them to rise, and on the other hand, the price of downstream made it difficult for them to rise. The whole environment continues to release off-season signals, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market continues to escalate, and the pressure on funds will also be magnified, so the proportion used to purchase raw materials will also shrink.

Coupled with the current global epidemic has exceeded 10 million cases, for the economy as a whole has had a greater negative impact, now it seems that the recurrence of the epidemic is inevitable, the need to want to return to last year's state is still under greater pressure. Mr. Wang, a foreign trade order maker, said: "This year, we can only raise workers. It has been nearly half a year since the beginning of the year. We haven't received a decent order yet. They are all orders of tens of thousands of meters in size. It's very difficult to make. If the raw materials rise again, then we will have to drink northwest breeze!"

The contradiction between "expensive" flour and "cheap" bread now seems to be difficult to neutralize in the short term. However, liquidity is relatively abundant this year. If the cost side rises sharply, it is still likely to stimulate the downstream to enter and take goods again and end the deadlock of "flour" in advance. However, the reality still needs to rely on the test of terminal demand (changes in domestic and foreign epidemics) and the price trend of upstream (crude oil)!